In the context of COVID-19 epidemic, Coface forecasts that 2020 will see the global economy’s first recession since 2009, with a growth rate of -1.3% (after +2.5% in 2019). Coface also expects recessions in 68 countries (vs only 11 last year), world trade to fall by 4.3% this year (after 0.4% drop in 2019), and a 25% worldwide increase in business failures (compared to previous January forecast of +2%).

Companies’ credit risk will be very high even in a “best-case” scenario, where economic activity gradually restarts in the third quarter of the year, and there is no second wave of the coronavirus epidemic in the second half of 2020.

This trend in business failures would affect the United States (+39%) and all the main Western European economies (+18%): Germany (+11%), France (+15%), United Kingdom (+33%), Italy (+18%) and Spain (+22%). The shock could be even more violent in emerging economies: in addition to managing the pandemic, which will be more difficult for them, they are also facing the fall in oil prices, as well as capital outflows that have quadrupled compared to their 2008 level.

For businesses, the sudden confinement measures taken by governments in more than 40 countries to stem the expansion of the COVID-19 virus, representing over half of the world’s population, have had immediate consequences.

These measures have resulted in a supply shock unlike any observed during previous major crises. The initial shock was not due to a financial crisis, but related to the real economy: people cannot work, and companies are experiencing disruptions to intermediate goods supply.

Tourism, hotels, restaurants, leisure, and transport are badly affected, as are almost all specialised distributions segments and most of the manufacturing sectors (excluding the agri-food industry). Other service sectors have been much less affected: telecommunications, water, and sanitation, to name a few.