The financial rating agency Moody’s Ratings has completed its periodic review of Romania’s credit profile, reconfirming the country’s solid medium-term economic growth potential and resilience to external shocks.
The conclusions of the analysis validate the direction of the fiscal consolidation measures initiated in 2025 and underline the importance of maintaining budgetary discipline to ensure a sustainable trajectory of public debt.
“Moody’s analysis confirms that Romania has a stable economy and a level of development that gives us a competitive position in the region. The assessment comes at an important moment, before the adoption of the state budget, which must be finalized as quickly as possible in a responsible and correct form, to ensure fiscal discipline on the one hand, and the economic recovery package on the other. We adopted firm measures in 2025 to correct budgetary imbalances, and the results are already visible in the gradual decrease in the deficit. This increasingly conveys confidence to investors and rating agencies, and our commitment remains unchanged: fiscal-budgetary discipline and responsibility and an economic policy focused on investments, mainly by accelerating the absorption of European funds and through measures to support the business environment,” said Alexandru Nazare, Minister of Finance.
Budget balancing and effectiveness of the measures adopted
Moody’s confirms that the fiscal measures adopted since July 2025 have had a positive impact on Romania’s fiscal outlook. As a result of these decisions, the budget deficit is on a clear downward path: from a peak of 9.3% of GDP in ESA terms in 2024, the agency estimates a reduction to 8.2% in 2025 and to reach 6.3% of GDP by the end of 2026.
Although government debt is forecast to reach 62.9% of GDP in 2027, and stabilize at around 65%, Moody’s considers that Romania maintains a debt-solvency capacity that remains robust. However, the agency notes potential risks to the outlook for a further deficit reduction beyond 2026 and a stabilization of the debt burden at a level corresponding to the Baa3 rating.
Investments through the PNRR, the engine of economic growth
The Ministry of Finance reaffirms that attracting European funds is priority zero. The absorption of money from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) by August 2026 is considered by the agency to be the determining factor for avoiding an economic contraction this year. Although there have been delays in implementation since 2024, Moody’s report notes that the current government has significantly accelerated the process. In this context, the agency estimates that Romania can access most of the remaining financing by the end of 2026, thus supporting public investment and structural reforms.
According to the report, the rating outlook could return to stable through the full and effective implementation of the consolidation program adopted in 2025, a process that should continue after 2027, albeit at a more moderate pace.
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