After a hopeful start to 2025, global M&A sentiment has slipped—but Europe is proving a rare bright spot. Boston Consulting Group (BCG)’s latest Mid-2025 M&A Insights report reveals a fragmented recovery in dealmaker confidence worldwide, with Europe unexpectedly overtaking North America in the M&A Sentiment Index for the first time in two years.
Drawing on proprietary BCG data, the report finds that while overall global sentiment remains 37 below its long-term average, European dealmaker confidence now stands at 85—leading all major regions and signaling renewed investor appetite amid the shifting geopolitical and macroeconomic landscape.
“This is a moment of recalibration. The dust of early-year optimism has settled, and what we see now is a global M&A market grappling with uncertainty,” said Jens Kengelbach, Managing Director and Senior Partner, Global Leader of Mergers and Acquisitions. “But Europe stands out—not because it’s booming, but because it’s becoming a safe harbor.”
Despite leading in sentiment, Europe’s actual M&A activity tells a more restrained story. In the first half of 2025, the region recorded $201 billion in deal value—a 14% drop from the second half of 2024. The discrepancy between rising sentiment and falling activity suggests a buildup of potential energy rather than immediate execution.
By contrast, deal value in the Americas surged by 23%, totaling $724 billion and accounting for 62% of global deal volume. Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific continues to falter, with deal value plunging 43% to $155 billion amid lingering geopolitical tensions and economic policy concerns.
Europe’s elevated sentiment score is bolstered by notable M&A activity in financial services and insurance. Transactions such as Banca Monte dei Paschi’s bid for Mediobanca and Helvetia’s acquisition of Baloise are emblematic of sector-wide dynamism, even in the face of broader market uncertainty.
Europe’s comparative stability—especially amid policy and regulatory volatility in the US—has positioned the region as an increasingly attractive destination for international capital. According to BCG’s data, European investors are particularly active in industries where consolidation offers strategic advantage, such as banking and insurance.
Globally, M&A activity totaled $1.1 trillion in January-June, down about 2% from the previous six months. While the number of large deals ($500M+) remains below the long-term average of 60–80 per month, the number of megadeals ($10B+) held steady at 24—unchanged from the second half of 2024.
Three transactions stood out:
- Rasner Media’s proposed $47.4 billion acquisition of TikTok’s US assets
- Toyota Motor’s $46.6 billion bid for Toyota Industries
- Sycamore Partners’ $43.7 billion bid to take Walgreens Boots Alliance private
Private equity activity also ticked upward, driven by pressure to deploy capital. However, funding for early- and later-stage startups—especially outside of AI—remains soft.
Dealmaking in volatile times favors experience. According to BCG’s 30-year analysis, serial acquirers generate nearly twice as much value during periods of high uncertainty as they do in more stable markets. In contrast, first-time dealmakers are more likely to destroy value under volatile conditions.
This insight is especially relevant now, as dealmakers navigate shocks such as the US tariff announcements from April 2025, ongoing global regulatory shifts, and changing capital flows. The data also suggests that experienced players are adapting faster—favoring flexible structures like joint ventures and earn-outs to mitigate risk and navigate cross-border complexity.
While the top-line numbers may not scream “rebound,” there are reasons for measured optimism. Industrials saw a 62% increase in deal value, followed by energy (+54%) and health care (+23%)—sectors buoyed by structural trends like reshoring, decarbonization, and aging demographics.
On the other end of the spectrum, consumer and materials saw deal values fall by nearly half, indicating where investor caution still dominates.
IPO activity, too, began strong in early 2025 before slowing in the second quarter due to increased volatility. Yet the pipeline remains full, suggesting that calmer conditions could trigger a resurgence.
Midway through 2025, global dealmakers are recalibrating—not retreating. The long-term drivers of M&A remain intact, from the demand for strategic transformation to the need to deploy capital efficiently. Europe’s unexpected ascent in sentiment reveals where opportunity may lie—even if execution lags behind for now.
For investors and corporate leaders alike, the message is clear: confidence may be scarce, but for those with clarity of purpose and strategic discipline, the second half of 2025 could offer a powerful window to act.
