Emerging Europe Monitor: Moving towards a domestic-driven growth model
BMI View: Romanian economic recovery will outperform most of Emerging Europe in 2015 and 2016, as the country moves towards a more domestic demand- driven growth model. Ailing eurozone demand will prevent a return to pre-crisis growth rates, according to website of Emerging Europe Monitor. 2014-11-26 16:13:16
Romania′s economic recovery will move onto a more sustainable footing over the next few years, as the country becomes less reliant on exports for growth. Recently released data from the National Statistics Institute (INE) showed real GDP expanded 3.2 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q314. This was well above Bloomberg consensus estimates of 1.4 per cent growth, and supports our decision to remain relatively bullish towards the economy despite an exceptionally weak growth reading in Q214 (1.0 per cent), the website reads.
We expect growth rates to remain steady in 2015 and 2016. Households will begin spending more and budget discipline during the downturn means the government can now contribute more significantly to growth. We forecast real GDP growth to expand by 3.4 per cent in 2015 and 3.6 per cent in 2016, above consensus estimates of 3.3 per cent and 3.2 per cent respectively. This suggests that the recovery should outpace most of emerging Europe over the next few years
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