Principles versus power in political alliances
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Results from June’s local elections see two parties emerging as major forces, with one set to dictate the nature of the political landscape following the general elections at the end of this year.
But leaders the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the Democratic-Liberal Party (PD-L) both scored around 30 per cent, giving neither party an absolute majority.
In post-1989 Romania, the party of power has commonly needed the support of the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) to gain a majority in Parliament.
However, if the June results are repeated later this year, this support may no longer be enough. In this case one of the two leading parties will need the backing of the third largest group, the National Liberal Party (PNL), which may become the new kingmaker.
A coalition between the PSD and the PNL will be a continuation of the current Governing power structures with different faces in the top positions. The present PNL-run cabinet enjoys the tacit support of the PSD in Parliament. Liberal Prime Minister Tariceanu’s most dramatic policies in the last year have borrowed from the populist left. This includes the massive increase in pensions before an election and his intention, as yet undefined, to set up a state-owned national energy champion bundling many of the existing power generation and distribution companies.
Local elections in Romania include two rounds. Candidates who do not gain a majority in the first election must face-off with the candidate who comes second for a further vote.
In last June’s second round, the PNL and the PSD asked their members to support each other in tactical voting which saw gains for the Social Democrats against the PD-L.
Such a strategy is risky. On paper, the PNL is the ideological opposite of the PSD, so this initiative was an invitation for supporters to betray their political inclinations and heritage.
Once one party has asked its voters to support a different party, it is hard to win them back. If a voter believes that by voting for the PSD, they are assisting the PNL, why do they need to bother casting their ballot for the PNL again? In practice, the PNL’s willingness to support the PSD in the second round of voting has proved to embolden the PSD and weaken confidence in the PNL.
The general election only has one round, so tactical voting should play a less important role, which may help to empower the PD-L. This new party has been attacked in the media for its failures to win a landslide in the local elections. But the PD-L has no previous record and has made local gains on its party of provenance, the Democratic Party (PD).
Patronised by President Basescu, the PD-L lacks friends in the political landscape. The tiny Conservative Party, known as the ‘Party of Television’ because the family of its founder owns television station Antena 1, supports the PSD. The Democratic Union of Hungarians is now allied to the PNL because the two parties share positions in the Government. Votes for the extreme right-wing Greater Romania Party (PRM) are in freefall.
This only leaves the New Generation Party (PNG), a one-man show organised by billionaire financier of Steaua football club Gigi Becali. The PNG has a confusing policy mix centred on tradition, religion and the cult of its leader’s personality.
Now the PD-L and PNG are combining forces in Bucharest City Council, where the two together have a majority of seats. But if the PD-L intends to create a formal alliance with such a party, it may alienate the hardcore voters who have stayed with the Democrats since the 1990s, due to their policies supporting a liberal and western perspective for Romania.
Michael Bird
