In 2025, Romania’s retail and FMCG sectors are navigating a dynamic period shaped by digital innovation, shifting consumer expectations, and economic adjustments. Consumers are increasingly value-conscious yet brand-aware, favoring convenience, sustainability, and personalized experiences. E-commerce continues to expand, while traditional retail adapts through omnichannel strategies and enhanced in-store experiences. At the same time, local brands are gaining ground, and private labels are becoming stronger players. As inflationary pressures ease, the focus shifts to long-term resilience and consumer loyalty in a competitive, fast-evolving market.
We talked with Alina Stepan, Alina Stepan, Country Manager Romania | Cluster Head South-East Europe, Ipsos, a global leader in market research. With deep expertise in consumer behavior and market dynamics, Alina Stepan brings valuable insights into the evolving landscape of retail and FMCG trends in Romania. As consumer expectations shift and the market adapts to economic and digital transformations, we’ll explore how brands and retailers are responding—and what lies ahead in this fast-moving sector.
What are the main macroeconomic or consumer confidence factors impacting FMCG and retail business in Romania in 2025?
The primary factors impacting the FMCG and retail sectors in Romania for 2025 are significant electoral (between the beginning of the year and the election of the new Government) and political uncertainty (given the fragile majority of the Government coalition, as per the latest polls) and a challenging local and global economic context. These elements contribute to heightened volatility and cautiousness. More specifically, consumer confidence has seen a sharp decline: in June 2025, the consumer confidence indicator dropped to -24.80 points from -15.50 in May. This ongoing lack of optimism, which lags behind the EU average, reinforces cautious spending habits among Romanians. Confidence (or lack thereof) is followed by political and fiscal Instability. This is echoed by external analysis, which points to political instability from elections and the need for fiscal measures to address a large budget deficit as key disruptors for 2025.
How are inflation, supply chain instability, or global events affecting product availability and pricing in Romania?
Inflation remains a dominant force, directly impacting household budgets and consumer behavior, as the latest figures indicate it reached 5.7% in June this year. Prices remain high, and consumers continue to struggle with their budgets. On the supply chain front, global geopolitical tensions, US tariffs, and extreme weather events are notable drivers of inflation volatility in Romania. While I am not a specialist in this area, the impact of these disruptions on supply chains is readily apparent. In the manufacturing sector, there are reports of suppliers increasing their prices, which contributes to higher costs for businesses. The combination of these factors has led to volume decreases in food and household care categories. The recent VAT increases as well as liberalized energy prices will most probably lead to a faster downtrading and private label increased share in consumers shopping baskets as a response to increasing prices. Also, discounters have become the number one retail channel in Romania. Brands must compete effectively in these channels to maintain their presence.
What challenges are brands facing when trying to maintain customer loyalty in such a dynamic retail environment?
Brands are facing a significant challenge with eroding consumer trust and loyalty, leading to consumers’ increased willingness to experiment with cheaper alternatives. Key challenges include, for example, increased price sensitivity and promo-hunting, as consumers have become highly pragmatic and price-sensitive. They are actively seeking “better deals,” with 76% looking for them online in 2024, a sharp increase from 60% in 2021, as per the latest Ipsos Global Trends report data. This has fueled a massive investment through brands in promotions, which accounted for 23.5% of total FMCG sales in the past year. Another trend we noticed in our consumer studies at Ipsos is the irreversible shift towards consumers demanding real value and authenticity. They are more informed, more demanding, and less willing to accept empty promises (“promisiuni goale”) and similar marketing campaigns. Competition from private labels & discounters: although private labels saw a slight decline in market share recently, they remain a significant force in FMCG.
What are Ipsos’ findings for the Romanian FMCG and retail markets in the next 12–18 months?
In the current global landscape, a “polycrisis” encompassing the pandemic, war, and inflation is fundamentally reshaping consumer priorities, according to global research from Ipsos. This environment creates a tension between price, convenience, and sustainability, with immediate financial concerns becoming top-of-mind for many.
This global pressure has a distinct impact on the Romanian market, fostering a significant erosion of consumer trust. A critical Ipsos finding reveals a high level of consumer disappointment, with 72% of Romanians feeling that their customer experiences are generally worse than what companies promise, a figure notably higher than the global average of 52%. In response to economic pressures, Ipsos analysis showed that consumers are actively adjusting their habits to cope with rising prices. This has led to a 3% decrease in the quantities of goods purchased and a substantial increase in the share of sales coming from promotions.
In this climate of disappointment and economic pragmatism, brand familiarity has become a cornerstone of consumer confidence. Trust in established brands remains exceptionally high, with 91% of Romanians stating they are more likely to trust a new product if it is from a brand they already know, placing the country in the top 3 globally for this reliance on familiarity.
This dynamic underscores the critical role of brand communication. Ipsos’s work with the Superbrands program in Romania highlights that consistency in a brand’s communication and reputation is a key factor for success. In a market where consumers feel let down and are carefully managing their budgets, it is the trusted, familiar brands that are best positioned to maintain loyalty and navigate the challenging economic landscape.
What are the key consumer behavior trends shaping the FMCG and retail market in Romania in 2025?
The contemporary Romanian consumer is shaped by a blend of economic pragmatism, cautious spending habits, and a deep integration into the digital world. In an economic climate marked by inflation, consumers have become notably value-driven and price-conscious, compelling them to prioritize essential products and actively seeking out promotions. This cautious approach is a direct reaction to economic uncertainty.
Despite this pragmatism, a nuanced trend is emerging: a growing appreciation for local products and a desire to support brands that are transparent and contribute positively to the community. While price remains a critical factor, there is a clear move towards authenticity. This has contributed to a decrease in brand loyalty, as pragmatic consumers are more willing to switch to cheaper alternatives or private labels if they perceive greater value. However, brand familiarity still plays a significant role, and shoppers in rural areas show high brand loyalty if the brand satisfies them.
Shopping habits have also evolved, with consumers making fewer trips to stores but purchasing more during each visit. This trend towards planned “stock-up” missions has led to a double-digit growth in the average value of a shopping basket, as households aim to better control their expenses. Mainstream brands are squeezed by both premium and value segments, as consumers make clear choices with respect to the brands they choose to buy and the benefits they receive in return.
The digital landscape profoundly influences modern consumer behavior. Romanians are highly connected online, and the opinions of others on social media significantly impact their purchasing decisions. A 2024 report highlighted that social media is the most effective channel for reaching customers. Many consumers believe they can find better deals online, which fuels the growth of e-commerce, although physical stores remain popular. This digital savviness is balanced with concerns over data privacy.
How is the balance shifting between traditional retail, modern trade, and e-commerce (digital transformation and omnichannel experiences) in Romania this year?
The Romanian retail sector is undergoing a significant consolidation around modern trade formats, which are increasingly dominating the market. Discounters and supermarkets, in particular, are expanding their footprint, especially in large urban centers. In fact, discounters emerged as the top retail channel in Romania in 2023 and continued to be the fastest-growing channel in the first quarter of 2025, gaining turnover from all other formats. Even hypermarkets, after a period of decline, showed signs of recovery with a volume rebound in early 2025; some retailers (i.e. Auchan) have remodeled their large supermarkets and reduced the surfaces, mainly cutting back from non-FMCG offer.
In stark contrast, the traditional trade channel is in a state of continuous decline, with its market share stagnating at just under 24%. The only area where traditional retail has managed to gain any ground is in rural regions, highlighting a significant urban-rural divide in shopping habits.
Meanwhile, the e-commerce market is on a strong growth trajectory, with projections indicating it will reach approximately €10 billion by 2025. Despite this impressive overall growth, its penetration within the FMCG sector remains relatively low, stabilizing at around 2% market value share. However, the broader influence of digital technology on retail is massive. The shift towards a digital and omnichannel experience is clear, with a significant number of Romanians using mobile devices for shopping and a growing expectation for seamless integration between online and physical stores.
What is the impact of AI technologies in the FMCG and retail in Romania and what to expect in the future?
The adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Romanian retail, while still in its nascent stages, is increasingly recognized as a pivotal technology for future growth and efficiency. Although a significant number of companies are testing or planning to use AI, only a small fraction (3%) has fully implemented it.
Currently, AI’s primary application is in predictive analytics and market analysis, with 83% of Romanian companies using it for these functions and reporting impressive results. A notable local development is from the Romanian tech startup Footprints AI, which has launched an “AI Copilot” for physical retail. This tool analyzes real-time, anonymized transaction data to help retailers optimize supply chains, marketing, and product assortment, essentially turning each store into an intelligent hub.
The future of retail is widely seen as a blend of AI integration and human experience (hi tech-hi touch). Globally, AI is expected to deliver immense value to the retail sector by streamlining supply chains, optimizing pricing, reducing forecasting errors by up to 50%, and creating hyper-personalized customer experiences. Generative AI, in particular, is projected to have a dramatic financial impact on the industry.
Despite this potential, Romanian managers face significant hurdles. A primary concern is data security, with 71% worried about potential breaches. Other major challenges include the high cost of implementation (cited by 47% of managers), the potential impact on the workforce (a concern for 69%), and a lack of internal expertise. There is also a recognized need to integrate AI thoughtfully into a consistent omnichannel strategy, as poorly designed digital interactions can harm customer satisfaction.