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CFA Romania analysts say EUR/RON average exchange rate to reach 4,71 RON in next six months

Eight out of ten Chartered Financial Analyst Romania (CFA) Romania analysts say that the EUR/RON average exchange rate will reach 4,71 RON in the next six months and 4,75 RON in April 2019.

2018-05-14 11:26:00

Around 80 percent of analysts of the Chartered Financial Analyst Romania (CFA) are forecasting that the local currency will lose ground against the EUR in the next 12 months, compared to the current value, according to Business Review.
Thus, the average value of forecasts for the next six months stands at RON 4.7106 for 1 EUR (average value 4.7000), while for the next 12 months the average value of the forecasted exchange rate is RON 4.7540 for 1 EUR. The anticipated inflation rate for the next 12 months (April 2018 – April 2019) recorded a value of 4.55 percent (the average value recorded is 4.5 percent).
Those surveyed expressed expectations for the increase of the interest rates against the current values for the RON for both short-term (3 months) and medium-term (5 years), with 96 percent and 92 percent of participants to the survey anticipating this evolution. Thus, the average ROBOR rate with a maturity of 3 months over 12 months is 3.20 percent (average 3.00 percent), and the return on sovereign bonds denominated in MDLs with a maturity of 5 years is 4.84 percent (median 4,80 percent). As a result, for the short-term maturities, negative real interest is anticipated.



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