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Gheorghe Ciubotaru, Electroalfa
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Garanti Bank expects a four per cent GDP growth rate in 2018

Garanti Bank estimates that the growth rate of the gross domestic product (GDP) could reduce speed in 2018, to four per cent, from 6.5 per cent in 2017, mainly due to a slower pace of industry and trade connected to a possible economic deceleration in Germany and Italy, two of the top 3 countries where Romania exports.

2018-01-15 16:17:48

According to the bank's latest Macroeconomic Report, industrial capacity increased in the last quarter 2017, above the post crisis average, and the main industries to advance should continue to be, as in previous quarters, car manufacturing, machinery and electrical equipment.
In terms of inflation, Garanti Bank estimates that this indicator will increase, with a new peak most likely to be reached in the first quarter of the year, while the yearly average could register a jump, from 1.3% in 2017, to 4% in 2018.
Subsequently, Garanti Bank anticipates the National Bank of Romania (NBR) will act upon the rising price pressure and operate several hikes in 2018. Additionally, the bank expects the Central Bank to operate further rises of the monetary policy interest rate, which could reach 2.75% this year. NBR has already decided, during the first monetary policy meeting this year, to increase the key rate to 2%, after keeping it unchanged since mid-2015.



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