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Coface expects Romanian economy to advance 4.2 per cent in 2016

Coface is expecting Romanian economy to advance 4.2 percent with zero contribution from agriculture in 2016, under a basic scenario, Coface Services Director and Senior Economist Iancu Guda said this week, quoted by Agerpres.

2016-02-05 11:07:25

"We are expecting the next year to go on a rising trend boosted particularly by the same growth factors. First of all, private consumption should advance up to 7 percent from the year before, backed up by several factors. On the one hand, there are the public pay rises — a 25-percent rise in healthcare staff′s pay, a 15-percent rise in education staff′s pay and a 10-percent rise in the pay for the remaining public workers, coupled with an increase in the minimum wage in May 2016, 19 percent after three consecutive years of average annual increases of 12 percent, a dynamic that unfortunately is not correlated with productivity gains," said Guda.

Investment would be another growth-sustaining factor.

"Investment is another factor supported by tax incentives: a decrease to 5 percent in the dividend tax, zero taxes on reinvested profit in a larger class of assets and a cut by 5 percent in the social security contributions due by employers. Coface is estimating a GDP rise by 4.2 percent with zero contribution from agriculture because of its unpredictability," said Guda.

The company is expecting Romania′s 2015 GDP growth to be 3.9 percent. "In Q4, 2015, we should witness sped-up GDP growth, which will lead to an estimated growth rate of 3.9 percent under the basic scenario," added the Coface official.

Last autumn, the National Economic Projection Board (CNP) upwardly adjusted to 3.6 percent its projections of Romania′s GDP′s growth in 2015, and kept at 4.1 percept its 2016 economic growth forecasts.



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