Erste: Romanian GDP to overcome the level of 2008
Romanian GDP might beat the level of 2008, fed by a recovery of domestic demand, while the main risks for decrease could be triggered by a deterioration of consumer trust and an agriculture production under expectations, ERSTE study finds.
2014-04-16 23:36:30
The bank analysts estimate an advance of 3 percent of Romanian GDP in 2014, after a 3.5 percent increase recorded in 2013. The growth pace would easily climb in the next years, to 3.5 percent in 2015 and 3.5 percent in 2016. The Romanian GDP was estimated at EUR 140 billion in 2008.
Recently, risk assessment company Coface has revised its estimate of Romania′s 2014 economic growth upwards from 2.1 pct to 2.3 pct, shows data presented on Wednesday at the Country Risk Conference by Coface chief economist Yves Zlotowski. Last year, the Romanian economy increased by 3.5 percent.
The quality and pace of Romania economic growth depends on infrastructure and the quality of the business environment. Infrastructure is a problem in Romania and as far as governance is concerned, Romania, like Poland, is in a better position than other countries in emerging Europe, but there is room for improvement, said Zlotowski.
Coface performed a series of adjustments to the evolution of Romania′s macroeconomic indicators and considers that the level of non-performing loans is worrying.
Despite a healthy recovery of the Romanian economy, there is a certain fragility in the corporate sector, said Zlotowski. Coface maintained Romania country risk rating at "B", the same as the one given to Bulgaria, Hungary and Croatia.
Coface economic growth estimates are: 2.9 percent for Poland (compared to 1.9 percent in 2013); 1.9 percent for the Czech Republic (as to -1.1 percent in 2013); 1.6 percent for Bulgaria (as to 0.6 percent in 2013). The countries expected to witness the largest growth are Latvia (4.2 percent) and Lithuania (3.4 percent). Coface sees the average GDP growth in emerging Europe at 2.1 percent, similar to that in 2013.